Nat Cat sigma 1/2026

When exposure outpaces adaptation

Insured natural catastrophes losses in 2025 totaled USD 107 billion, according to Swiss Re Institute's latest sigma publication, which documents the dominance of secondary perils including wildfires and severe convective storms in driving claims. 

While losses in 2025 were below USD 140 billion implied by the long-term trend, this doesn't reflect a reduction in underlying risk. The persistent rise in exposure that accompanies economic growth suggests the next major catastrophe, when it occurs, will cause significantly higher insured losses.

Given still-large protection gaps and structural vulnerabilities, it is clear that adaptation and accurate data, along with continued insurance innovation that enlists broad stakeholder groups, will be essential to managing these risks.